Here's my disclaimer, my mornings are tied up 6 ways to Sunday.  So I can post an OT really late the night before, or not at all.  Best I can do.  Usually headlines are my target, but due to the holiday season I've been avoiding the "news" even more than usual.

I love scavenger hunts.  There's probably a bazillion versions online, but the new Google street view function kind of opened up an idea.  Find the object, post the location and direction to rotate.   For instance, person in a wheelchair.  1118 Summit Ave, Seattle, WA, rotate SSE.  It's sort of problematic if you go to the wrong spot, as the people can move from one frame to the next, or the day can change if you turn a corner.  I think this could be a lot of fun,  but then again it could be completely retarded and a total drag.  Perhaps there should be some rules, or some kind of structure.  Like a point system based on location of the find, something like that.  If the LL community can divide the west coast and creat the NRC vs. PRC conflict, then I'm certain some structure for a scavenger hunt is child play.  Or just ignore it as my 75 word filler, and let the chatting proceed.

Things to look for:

Cows, kids playing ball, fire trucks, cop car pulling someone over, house most likely to be a haunted house, person in a mariners jersey, house on fire (at least smoking), people in a boat, person fishing,  person most likely a douchebag,  giant clock, car with a mattress on the roof, homeless person (just to help out esoteric), and somebody post a bunch if you're interested an feeling creative.  It's late and I'm done.

 

So I've been lurking around here for about a year but I've never really felt the need post anything. Now though, I'm looking to buy my dad either a good Sabermetrics book or a stat heavy baseball sim for christmas this year and I was wondering if any of you stat-addicts knew some good ones?

I was thinking of The Book by Tom Tango or Out of the Park Baseball 9. If you guys have any better recomendations I'd appreciate it.

Also, while I'm here...

When you park adjust tRA, is it only adjusted based on pitchers' home stadium and the assumption that half their games will be there, or is it adjusted based on where a pitcher actually pitched his innings?

So (hypothetically) if Carlos Silva, by some statistical fluke, managed to do 120 innings of his suckage in hitter friendly parks and only 33.3 in pitcher friendly parks, would tRA account for that and produce a slightly lower number, or would it in fact produce a slightly higher number becuase of his home park being pitcher friendly?

And while we're on the topic, who do you think would win in a hot dog eating contest, Carlos Silva or a Velociraptor?

I started this earlier today and with JI's and marc w's posts about shortstops, now seems like a good time to post it.

As we all know, SS is a huge need for Seattle in 2009 and beyond.  I've seen a lot of posts here and other places suggesting a trade for JJ Hardy because he's good and may be too expensive for the Brewers starting with the 09 season - his 2nd arbitration year if I'm not mistaken.

So, based on nothing other than internet rumblings, I thought I'd try and place a value on Hardy vs. Yuni to show the benefits of trading for Hardy and also to come up with a proper trade for him.  I'm pretty new to valuing players - I usually search LL / USSM / Fangraphs so I can read the work of smart and competent people.  If I did make a mistake or mistakes, please feel free to correct me.

I also am not certain as to what the Brewers need in return for Hardy.  I assume with CC & Sheets leaving they will need starting pitching as well as some infield help to replace Hardy.  I guess the Brewers wouldn't be thinking of trading Hardy if they didn't feel they have a replacement already available.  With Saloman Torres retiring and a few other bullpen pitchers on the FA market they probably need some bullpen help as well.

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GMZ continued his poaching of the farm system he built in Milwaukee by signing 2B Callix Crabbe, a 25 yo who'd been in the Brewers farm system.

Crabbe was selected by the Padres in last year's Rule 5 draft, but was returned to Milwaukee in May.   He's a guy with great plate discipline, and little to no power.   He's a poor man's Luis Valbuena, but with a much, much cooler name.   A great guy to plug in Tacoma with the departure of Yung-Chi Chen.

And, since there's been so much talk about OTHER teams signing shortstops, the M's also picked up ex-Mets/Blue Jays SS Chris Woodward.   I'm guessing Woodward fills the Mark Kiger/Oswaldo Navarro role as back-up to Tug, or as starter in West Tennessee.   

Nice work Jack.

It's offical:

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - Edgar Renteria became the second free agent to join the San Francisco Giants in as many days, receiving an $18.5 million, two-year contract to replace 11-time Gold Glove shortstop Omar Vizquel.

"He is a complete player on both sides of the ball, a clutch performer and a winner," Giants general manager Brian Sabean said in a statement Thursday announcing the deal. "He has the hardware to show it with the awards he has garnered and a World Series ring. We look forward to seeing him in a Giants uniform."

The deal was first reported by FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.

Renteria gets a $2 million signing bonus, $7 million next year and $9 million in 2010. The Giants have a $10.5 million option for 2011 with a $500,000 buyout.

Renteria is a decent enough bounce back candidate, but I'm not wild about giving him a guaranteed second year.

Via Rotoworld:

The Cardinals are on the verge of acquiring Khalil Greene from the Padres for two relief prospects, according to the New York Post.

The Padres will get Mark Worrell and a player to be named from the Cardinals for Khalil Greene, according to MLB.com.

Greene is owed ~$6m, next season.  As noted by reputable sources, Greene has always been a great breakout candidate, espically if one were to remove him from Petco Park, and even if he doesn't bounce back all the way he's still a solid regular. For the price of the midwest version of Sean Green? I love it. welcome to Cardinal Nation, Khalilbot!

UPDATE: The Padres are paying Greene to go away.

According to one club official, the commissioner’s office may need to approve the deal, which likely means that the Padres could be offsetting Greene’s salary by at least $1 million.

SECOND UPDATE: Apparently that part went away.

THIRD UPDATE: Word is the Pads are paying $2m. The only way this would be better is if Towers kept the $2m and instead threw in the rights to Frankenfriar.*

*

via lh4.ggpht.com

* I like Frankenfriar.

 

 

EVERYTHING is dragging today: Youtube won't even load, my LaunchCast has been "Tuning" for about two minutes now, my Google Reader isn't working right. The only site that seems immune is Lookout Landing.

Let's take a breeze around the news, shall we?

Windows has dropped to an 89.6% market share.

NFLPA files grievance on Burress' behalf.

Ripley worried about "cholera" in Alien 3, and now Zimbabwe is having an outbreak.

It's a slow day for news that isn't political, so we'll just leave it at that.

A gushing overview of Adair's path to Texas.

It does seem to be a very positive day on the M's front.

The Detroit Tigers made Rick Adair their big league pitching coach with three weeks left in the 1996 season, after Jon Matlack resigned for personal reasons.  Adair was a sensible choice, not only because he'd served as Detroit's AAA pitching coach in 1995 and roving minor league pitching instructor until the September promotion in 1996, but also because he had a couple seasons of experience not long before as Cleveland's big league pitching coach.

Detroit's 1996 ERA under Matlack was 6.38, baseball's worst by nearly a full run.

Under Adair's watch in 1997, the Tigers shaved nearly two runs off its team ERA, finishing sixth in the American League with a 4.56 mark.  

In what was the first full season in the bigs for each, Justin Thompson (age 24) went 15-11, 3.02 and made the All-Star Team, and Brian Moehler (age 25) went 11-12, 4.67.  Journeyman Willie Blair (age 31), pitching for his sixth major league in eight years and working as a full-time starter for the first time, went 16-8, 4.17.

The trio came into the 1997 season with a collective lifetime 4.72 ERA.  In 1997, the three combined to post a 3.88 ERA under Adair's tutelage.

Solid. 

Baker says Branyan is mystery free agent.

 

Branyan is a third baseman, who can also play first base and the outfield. At the very worst, he's a huge hitting upgrade over Miguel Cairo -- who manned both corner infield spots way too often last year. But I have a feeling Branyan will be doing more than just backing up. Let's see. Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik says he can play both spots, or serve as the DH.

For some reason my Yahoo LaunchCast just played Jeff Beck. Why? I have no idea. I don't like Jeff Beck. My music tastes don't lend themselves to LaunchCast determining that I like Jeff Beck.

I watched two movies last night on my Xbox streaming Netflix: Ratatouille and Jesus Camp. Ratatouille was pretty good. I thought the first half of the movie was extremely slow, but the second half made up for that. Jesus Camp made me want to punch things.

What movies have you seen recently that made your temper go through the roof?

WHIP sucks.

What's wrong with it? Let me give you a list.

1) Assumes hits given up are entirely under the pitcher's control.

Did you know that defence isn't entirely static? Funny that. Hits don't occur at the same rate in front of different fielders and in different ballparks, and the variation in defence/park effect far outstrips any variation in hit prevention skill amongst ML calbire pitching.

2) Assumes innings pitched are entirely under the pitcher's control.

Sort of the same as point one but so crucial I decided to mention it twice. Outs are determined by pitcher skill, defence, and park effects. Pretending that the latter two don't exist when trying to measure pitcher effectiveness is a bad idea.

3) Improper mapping of different types of hits to different run values.

WHIP values a single the same as as a home run. At least ERA doesn't have this problem.

The problem with throwing together a set of numbers that look vaguely similar and calling them statistics is that generally the result means, in layman's terms, sweet bugger all. For all intents and purposes, WHIP is ERA except worse. At least ERA tries to measure runs, while all WHIP does is... measure walks and hits per inning pitched.

It's crap like this that gives real analysis a bad name. Fantasy baseball has a lot to answer for.