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Community Projection: Jose Guillen

The eighth in a non-alphabetical and irregularly updated series of review pieces for each of the players we predicted last winter. (All entries are linked in the left-hand sidebar, below the Rotoworld stuff and the interviews.)

LL/USSM Community: 456 AB's, .268/.324/.443 (n=117)
Actual Line: 593 AB's, .290/.353/.460

Closest Projection: DC_Mariner, .290/.347/.455

For once, a projection that came out comfortably below the reality, both in terms of playing time (health) and performance. The community wasn't real sure how Guillen would recover from his operation, and it was skeptical that he'd be able to put up real shiny numbers in a park that hurts right-handed power bats, but what we didn't know at the time is that Guillen likes to hit the other way, and that he does it rather often when he's playing at or near 100%. I suppose there are two things we can learn from this: (1) elbow surgery doesn't mean that much for a hitter, and (2) if you can hit in RFK, you can probably hit in Safeco. It's always nice when you can get something out of your mistakes.

The entire 2007 Jose Guillen experience cannot be considered anything but a total success for all parties involved. The Mariners dug for a bargain and wound up with a great value in right field, paying only $5.5m for an everyday 116 OPS+ who seemed to be a positive influence off the field. The fans got to root for a quality FA signing with both talent and personality instead of getting another boring retreat crammed down their throats. And Guillen was able to produce for a full year without any negative incidents, thereby getting his market value back up in time to land a bigger deal that lets him stay put in one place for three or four seasons. Yeah, the whole steroid thing is probably going to hurt him, but that only came out recently, and as far as everything else leading up to that point is concerned, I don't think it could've gone much better for anyone.

As much as most of us came to like Guillen this year, it took a little while, I think, before we really warmed up to him. He didn't get off to the best start at the plate, and an ankle problem was taking a visible toll on his range in the field. Through June 22nd Guillen was hitting only .255 with nine home runs, and while he wasn't a black hole, he was having trouble against righties, and we began to wonder if that was all there was.

It wasn't. For the next two months, Guillen flipped out, batting .344 with a .949 OPS and 41 RBI. Over those 52 games, he went o'fer on consecutive days just once, while collecting multiple hits on 22 separate occasions. As the Mariners made their unexpected charge towards the playoffs, Guillen was getting on base, hitting for average, and hitting for power, and while everything kind of dropped off pretty quickly for everyone come late August and early September, the thought of Jose Guillen became inextricably tied to the thought of the Mariners playing good baseball. He was always right in the thick of things, be it driving in a runner at the plate or animatedly congratulating someone else who had, and that, along with his persistent shit-eating grin, made him easy to like. Almost overnight, Jose Guillen became a fan favorite.

Good vibes were everywhere, and there was a point in August where it seemed like a Guillen extension with the Mariners was imminent. The team liked him, the players liked him, the fans liked him, and Guillen kept saying all the right things about wanting to stick around and actually being able to call a place home for once. Just when it felt like all Guillen had to do was sign his name on the line, though, the team started losing, and all the collective happiness disintegrated into thin air. The front office shifted its priorities and Guillen started speaking up a little more about the Eric Byrnes contract with Arizona. Suddenly the extension that we'd all been expecting to hear about for weeks started to look like it wasn't in the cards.

Now, a month and a half after the end of the season, it's clear that the front office no longer wants to give Guillen what he's looking for, and, having failed to negotiate an extension before Tuesday, Guillen's all set to hit the FA market yet again. Once he signs somewhere else, a compensatory first-round sandwich pick will be all the Mariners have left to show for the outfielder they thought they'd lock up through 2010 just a few months ago. It's never easy to lose players you like, and me, I found myself really pulling hard for the guy down the stretch. I'm going to miss Jose Guillen being a part of this ballclub.

But at the same time, it's important to remember that Jose Guillen isn't a superstar. He's replaceable. Once you account for Safeco, 2007 was probably as good as it's going to get for the guy offensively, and since he's not an asset in the field, you're talking about a corner guy who's comfortably above-average. Comfortably above-average corner guys shouldn't get $30m/3yr contracts for their age 32-34 seasons. I like Jose Guillen, but if that's what he wants - and that is what he wants - it isn't worth the commitment. Not at a position that's relatively easy to fill, and certainly not on a team that already has enough wasted money on the payroll. This is one of those times where we just have to look past our emotions and realize that the Mariners as a whole are in better position going forward without Jose Guillen than they would be with Guillen signed to a big extension.

I don't know what lies ahead for Guillen. For his sake, I hope it's big money in a city he enjoys with fans that appreciate what he brings to the table. It's weird the bonds that can form even when you only know a guy for six months, but my memories of Guillen's time spent in Seattle are indelibly positive, and he deserves to be able to settle down somewhere for three or four years. So thank you, Jose, for a good summer. I'm thankful for the production, I'm thankful for the energy, and I'm thankful for the endless supply of writing material concerning your violent rage that you did an admirable job of keeping below the surface on all but a few occasions. May you go on to greener pastures, and find yourself so affronted with the lack of an extension in Seattle that you hit as poorly against us in the future as you did against the Angels.

0 recs | Comment 43 comments

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Well said
And, with him gone, at least we can have the confidence that Adam Jones will play, even if he is not replacing the correct fielder.
Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Nov 15, 2007 12:14 AM PST   0 recs

I've always loved the fact that Angel fans
absolutely despise the guy and have every right too, while we like him and have no reason not to.

Good luck to yeah Jose.

These pretzels....are making me thirsty!

by Goose on Nov 15, 2007 5:08 AM PST   0 recs

Don't forget his greatest contribution
A burning, all-consuming hatred of the Angels that is exceeded only by Jeff's.

by Nadingo on Nov 15, 2007 6:32 AM PST   0 recs

Bavasi during Guillen's extension negotiatins:
there should be three levels of terror alert: Jesus Christ, Goddammit, and fuck me! -LB

by Mere Tantalisers on Nov 15, 2007 6:34 AM PST   0 recs

...how so?
These pretzels....are making me thirsty!

by Goose on Nov 15, 2007 6:51 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

well, I would think
it involves a lot of stretching and good hygiene, but you're asking the wring guy.
there should be three levels of terror alert: Jesus Christ, Goddammit, and fuck me! -LB

by Mere Tantalisers on Nov 15, 2007 7:14 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Badum Bum Ching.
Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Nov 15, 2007 10:06 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

I'm in the minority I guess,
but having season tickets in right field made me like Jose about as much as a red hot poker in my eye.  I know I was spoiled by watching Ichiro in RF for 6 years and then even Jay before that, but Jose was as bad as Raul in the field this year.  The only thing saving him in the defensive metrics was that he had a lot less ground to cover.

I appreciate what he brought to the table offensively, but I will not miss Jose.

by Sec 108 on Nov 15, 2007 9:22 AM PST   0 recs

M's FO / Bavasi
I'll bet that the recent drug / steroid event will be used by the M's FO as the main reason NOT to offer arbitration to Guillen, so we won't even get the draft choice...

by C Cheetah on Nov 15, 2007 9:51 AM PST   0 recs

That would be stupid of them.
Especially considering how many other known users we've had (and still have) in the system.

by Jeff on Nov 15, 2007 12:18 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Added Caption to Guillen Photo:
Mike Hargrove: "Oh my god, he's going to cut me"

or

Mike Hargrove: "Oh shit, I just wet my pants."

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Nov 15, 2007 10:54 AM PST   0 recs

I was thinking about this
and this is as good a spot to discuss it as any others i guess.

I was wondering if we could have a thread before the next round of predictions/projections to discuss how we want it to work.  It seems there was a little confusion on how we wanted to deal with the possibility of injury in our projections.

If we want to do median projections then only the chance of minor injuries needs to be really considered but if we want to take into account big injuries then we need to compute a mean projection.  

I think its a little tough to do that just off the top of my head because basically what you are required to do is to look at a player and ask what his expected production is if he is healthy and what his production would be if he was hurt and then figure out the chance he gets hurt to figure out your average projection.

I think it'd be easier and maybe more accurate if everyone made high/med/low projections and then assigned probabilities to them.  This would be more work but I think it would allow us to use more of our intuition about players by giving the projections more information.  This would also allow us to give more information about high risk players than the method we use right now.

For example for Jose in 2008:
Low:  15% chance / 200 AB, 7 HR
Med:  55% chance / 550 AB, 20 HR
High: 30% chance / 600 AB, 25 HR
Using this, my mean projection is 485 AB and 18.6 HR.

I don't know what exactly we want to do but we should figure out how we want to deal with injuries.  I know, this seems like really early to be thinking about this stuff but I'm interested in thoughts about it.

by Edgar for Pres on Nov 15, 2007 4:09 PM PST   0 recs

By the way, this slipped my mind last night:
Guillen's takeout slides were batshit crazy.

I'll get to the Vidro review this weekend. That should be fun.

by Jeff on Nov 15, 2007 11:27 PM PST   0 recs

The slides were my favorite part
of his game.  His getting drilled by the pitcher ability is through the roof too.  I know he stands close to the plate and is a jerk on the diamond, but he gets hit so often it's almost part of his game plan.

by Jed MC on Nov 16, 2007 7:28 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

I've always felt that paying for superstars
to play in the corner outfield was a waste of money. Its not a premium defensive position, so you can always find guys like Ibanez or Guillen, who give you 80% of the offensive production you would get by paying top dollar at a fraction of the cost (nevermind the defensive setbacks you get with those two - they are the exception not the rule).

This is why I think its such a shame Guillen was not resigned. Even if they are fixated on keeping Raul in left and playing Jones in right, Guillen signed to a below market rate deal (which could have been done before Byrnes went and shat in the pool) would have given the M's a trade chip more valuable than Balentien or Clement.

This is all conjecture, but with the pitching market being what it is, I think the M's would be in a much better position to trade for a #2 type  if they had Guillen on a 3/21 type deal to offer as part of the package...

there should be three levels of terror alert: Jesus Christ, Goddammit, and fuck me! -LB

by Mere Tantalisers on Nov 16, 2007 7:58 AM PST   0 recs

I'd have no problem
paying for a real superstar like Vlad.

by Edgar for Pres on Nov 16, 2007 8:00 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

considering that marginal stars
like JD drew are getting 70mil 5 year contracts, I think it's wiser to spend the big FA bucks on, say, second basemen who hit - a much rarer commodity that costs the same. Adrian Beltre - good FA contract. Carlos Lee - bad FA contract.
there should be three levels of terror alert: Jesus Christ, Goddammit, and fuck me! -LB

by Mere Tantalisers on Nov 16, 2007 8:32 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

That analogy doesn't work
Carlos Lee got paid more and isn't that good.  I think you get stars no matter how.  The bar for non-defensive positions to be a star is just higher than positions like SS or 2B.

by Edgar for Pres on Nov 16, 2007 11:52 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Some positions are easier to fill from within
and organization, and at some positions there is simply more talent available so FAs are cheaper to come by. for example, signing star relievers like Billy Wagner to big contracts is not very smart.

I think that the offensive difference between a star corner OF and a very good one (say, Ramirez and Guillen) does not merit the 13 million per difference in salary. That money is better spent on positions where star level talent is harder to find, such as starting pitcher, 2B, CF, etc. That's all.

Vlad would be great if he could be signed to a reasonable contract. I was all for signing him back in 2003 (was it 03 he was a free agent?), but I think if you're spending in the 20mil per range, its better to put that into a position where 5-8mil per won't get you 80% of the way there.

there should be three levels of terror alert: Jesus Christ, Goddammit, and fuck me! -LB

by Mere Tantalisers on Nov 16, 2007 12:25 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

There are no stars
availible at 2B, CF, ect this offseason as far as I can tell.

by Edgar for Pres on Nov 16, 2007 2:14 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

that wasn't my point
I don't disagree with you, I would love for the M's to attract as much top level talent as possible. But as long as they have a limited payroll, 20% of it committed to Ichiro for the next several years, I think it wise for them to sign guys like Guillen to play the OF and save the big bucks for, I dunno, starters.
there should be three levels of terror alert: Jesus Christ, Goddammit, and fuck me! -LB

by Mere Tantalisers on Nov 16, 2007 5:00 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Good starters.
It's the M's, you need to be more specific.
I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Nov 16, 2007 5:04 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Old men with impotence problems.
Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Nov 16, 2007 5:16 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I agree that you should spend your money
on true stars.  I just think that corner OF stars are valuable too as long as they are "elite" corner OF and not Carlos Lee level.

by Edgar for Pres on Nov 17, 2007 1:00 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

No one
outside the Lee family thought that was a good deal.

by G_ on Nov 17, 2007 12:02 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Not totally sure on the CBA rules governing this
but I don't think the Ms could have signed Guillen to an extension and then traded him this offseason.

by Matthew on Nov 16, 2007 8:49 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Pretty sure they could
Arroyo is the guy who springs to mind.

by Graham on Nov 16, 2007 10:36 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Unlike Guillen
Arroyo was still in his arbitration years and thus under team control.

A free agent like Guillen would get no trade protection through June 15.

by G_ on Nov 16, 2007 10:43 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Ahah
I really should have remembered that.

by Graham on Nov 16, 2007 10:51 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Yup
Per CBA, Guillen would have no-trade protection through June 15.

by G_ on Nov 16, 2007 10:40 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

That would be just fine by me
it would add incentive to move Sexson, who would be rendered, as the Brits say, redundant. And when the team is nowhere near contention in June, as they won't be, Guillen can be traded to whoever is looking for an 'impact bat' in the summer. Perfect.
there should be three levels of terror alert: Jesus Christ, Goddammit, and fuck me! -LB

by Mere Tantalisers on Nov 16, 2007 10:57 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

The problem is
the M's would probably get a better player with the compensatory first round pick than a mid-season Guillen trade.  

by G_ on Nov 16, 2007 11:20 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

The way it stands
I think they're going to miss out on the pick as well. They declined his option, so they can't offer him arby, right? That was my understanding of things. There may be something I'm missing here, but I just don't see any point in not taking that option. You know he'll decline it, so its just ensuring the compensatory pick... Its such convoluted business, baseball.
there should be three levels of terror alert: Jesus Christ, Goddammit, and fuck me! -LB

by Mere Tantalisers on Nov 16, 2007 12:09 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Five roast beef sandwiches for $5?
How would that entice him to stay?

Wait, I think I did that wrong.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Nov 16, 2007 12:35 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Can't fool old Ray!
I only smell four sammiches!
I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Nov 16, 2007 12:36 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

OK
I feel better about it now. Maybe I should retract the head up the ass photo.
there should be three levels of terror alert: Jesus Christ, Goddammit, and fuck me! -LB

by Mere Tantalisers on Nov 16, 2007 12:51 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Nah.
I'm pretty sure they can still offer him arbitration, which if he gets a free agent contract elsewhere means that the M's would get the pick. The only way they miss out on the compensatory pick(s) is if they either don't offer arbitration or if they can't offer arbitration because it's written into the contract (see Pudge Rodriguez' last contract w/the Marlins).  

Arbitration doesn't have anything to do with contract options, unless it's specifically written into the contract that the player can't be offered arbitration.  AFAIK, Guillen's contract didn't have this written into it. I believe Hideki Matsui's contract and Kenji's contract eliminated arbitration as an option after their first contracts expired.  I could be wrong on those two, though, but I'm almost 100% certain the M's can still offer Guillen arbitration (and, it's this act that determines whether or not they get the compensatory draft pick).  

"I restore a sense of childlike wonder to people's lives; you give them Zunes and Vista." -- Fake Steve Jobs to Borg employees

by PositivePaul on Nov 16, 2007 12:37 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Correct
Arbitration has nothing to do with the contract option.  

by G_ on Nov 16, 2007 12:52 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

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