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Community Projection: Yuniesky Betancourt

The fourth in a non-alphabetical and irregularly updated series of review pieces for each of the players we predicted last winter. (All entries are linked in the left-hand sidebar, below the Rotoworld stuff and the interviews.)

LL/USSM Community: 565 AB's, .287/.319/.407 (n=145)
Actual Line: 536 AB's, .289/.308/.418

Closest Projection: peterp, .293/.316/.418

Pretty much right on, which would be more impressive were there an actual element of mystery to Betancourt's offense. As it is, he pulled a Kenji and basically had the exact same year in 2007 as he did in 2006. Such consistency makes it easy to imagine where the 2008 community projection will end up.

I wish I could come up with an interesting way to describe Yuni's season at the plate, but I can't. Outside of a few well-timed knocks that made him the ninth-clutchest hitter in baseball, his campaign was entirely nondescript; there were periods where he looked average, periods where he looked unstoppable, and periods where he looked like the worst, most pop-up-friendly hitter alive. Altogether, they made him what he is - an average, low-ceiling offensive shortstop whose value is supposed to come from his superior defense.

Perhaps it's that defense, more than anything else, that was the real story of Betancourt's season. Expected to be an asset in the middle who came to the aid of a groundballing pitching staff, Yuni instead embarked on an awful start to the year in the field, committing six errors in his first 14 games and taking 18 into the All Star Break. It got to the point at which Mariner fans were openly nervous whenever any ball was hit to short, something I don't think anyone could've predicted in March. It wasn't so much the glove as it was the arm - Betancourt's footwork was all messed up, and the result was that his throws were sailing.

The thing about errors, though, is that they can be correctable. This is one of the reasons why fielding percentage is of little use. You can fix mistakes. Sure enough, the effort put forth by Betancourt and the Mariner coaching staff to turn around this downswing paid off, as Yuniesky committed just five errors the rest of the way. Over time, memories of his errant throws began to fade, and fans once again came to trust their shortstop almost as much as they trusted their third baseman.

Yet, one has to wonder just how good Betancourt's defense really is, because as flashy and agile as he looks, his reputation hasn't been backed up by the advanced metrics. THT's zone rating doesn't view him favorably, and UZR pegs him as a total -11 runs since his debut in 2005 (-2 in 2005, -6 in 2006, and -3 in 2007). A single-season fluke is one thing, but at this point Betancourt's spent 362 Major League games at shortstop, and the numbers are still calling us liars. Granted, were it not for the string of throwing errors he would've wound up slightly positive this year, but still, if this were any other player on any other team, I'd be calling his defense overrated without thinking twice. We have to consider the possibility that Yuni may not be as big of an asset in the field as we thought he'd be.

If his defense really is in the -5 < x < +5 range, rather than the +10 < x < +20 range, then he doesn't stand to be much better than an average shortstop going forward, because Betancourt's just about reached his offensive potential. He did increase his extra-base hit rate from 26% to 32%, but I think a lot of that was Yuni turning on the jets on singles in the gap and getting to second, not an indication that he gained a substantial amount of strength, or that he became a more selective and effective hitter. As an aggressive hacker who's never going to hit 20 home runs, Yuni's offense is driven by contact and singles, and unless you're Ichiro, that can only get you so far. Outside of a peak season or two around .300/.320/.440, I expect Betancourt to make a career out of seasons like last year.

Nevertheless, despite the numbers, I'll say this for Yuni - as much as I think he may be an overrated young player, he's a hell of a lot of fun to watch, and he's really easy to like. He does everything at full speed, he goes about his business with childlike enthusiasm, and he makes the flashy defensive plays that tend to stick in peoples' minds for a long time. On top of that, he's a constant threat to hit a single. His ability to smack a base hit on even the weirdest of pitches makes him a strangely comfortable guy to have at the plate in a big situation. For as long as he sticks around, I imagine Yuni's going to have one of the highest fan-support-to-productivity ratios on the team. Being a baseball fan isn't all about rooting for the best players. Sometimes it's about rooting for the guy who runs out to second because he thinks the player who just hit a walk-off home run just hit a walk-off double.

I'm glad Yuniesky Betancourt is a Mariner. Not because he's the best player at his position, or because he'll drive in the most runs, but because he's like an excitable little kid, and on a team that doesn't look like an imminent threat to win 95 games or contend for the Series, I need players who're fun to watch to get me through nine innings every day. Do I wish he were better? Of course I do. But since there aren't any replacements hanging around, and since he's not even close to being the biggest problem on the team, I'm not going to complain about the better half of the pop-up twins. Here's to another year of timely singles, defensive theatrics, and embarrassing attempts to steal second base. I, for one, can't wait.

0 recs | Comment 15 comments

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Well said.
Other than Felix and Ichiro!, Yuni's my favorite Mariner.  Stats be damned!

by Patrick517 on Nov 5, 2007 12:45 AM PST   0 recs

Agreed.
Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Nov 5, 2007 12:46 AM PST   0 recs

The next clutchest hitter is Lopez?
Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Nov 5, 2007 12:59 AM PST   0 recs

Jeff
Just to let you know, the fan-graph link is showing WPA rankings.

by Patrick517 on Nov 5, 2007 1:00 AM PST   0 recs

If you click on "clutch"
In the right corner, it will reorganize them. You may have to click twice, since the first one goes negative to positive.
Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Nov 5, 2007 1:04 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

What's awesome about clutch
is kendall comes out ahead of ordonez
there should be three levels of terror alert: Jesus Christ, Goddammit, and fuck me! -LB

by Mere Tantalisers on Nov 5, 2007 6:05 AM PST   0 recs

I remember when
everyone was glad we got Clement and not Tulowitzki...  We figured Tolu wasn't going to be better than .280 20hr 20sb with above average defense, and we had Yuni, Adam Jones, Tui, and Adsrubel Cabrera
http://seattlesportsmaniac.blogspot.com

by LantermanC on Nov 5, 2007 8:15 AM PST   0 recs

This could still be true
Tulo just came up earlier.
Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Nov 5, 2007 12:03 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Clement>Tulo
Tulo's good and will probably get better, but he's a Coors field only hitter right now.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Nov 5, 2007 1:34 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

No chance
Park adjusted, Tulowitzki was worth about 5 runs above an average hitter this year.  By almost any metric, he was the best defensive SS in baseball this year (Adam Everett got hurt), somewhere in the +15 to +30 range.  Toss in the positional adjustment, and Tulo was something like a +30 to +40 player this year.  At age 22.  

Clement's a year older, still doesn't have a position, and his offense in Tacoma wasn't significantly better than Tulo's in Colorado.  

If Clement ends up as a 1B/DH, he'd have to hit something like Mark Teixeira to be as valuable as Tulowitzki was in 2007 and not be a disaster in the field.  If he doesn't convert to 1B well, he'd have to hit more like David Ortiz.  

The difference between Tulo and Clement, right now, is about the same as the difference between Felix and Brandon Morrow.  

by davidcameron on Nov 5, 2007 1:40 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Clement has a position.
Catcher. The guy who sits behind home plate and catches.
What do I look like, a guy who's not lazy?

by Rollo Tomasi on Nov 6, 2007 2:33 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Not really
Not unless he gets a lot better behind the plate.  It's not an accident that he didn't play one inning with the tools of ignorance during September.  Right now, the M's view him strictly as a DH in the majors.  They haven't given up on him as a catcher, but that's certainly not his position yet.

by davidcameron on Nov 6, 2007 7:25 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

It would be good to finally have a young DH
That can also field if necessary.  It'd be a nice change of pace for once.  Especially with the youth aspect, which you only usually see if a player is a monster in size, like Ortiz, and even he played the field for a few years first.
Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Nov 6, 2007 10:01 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Yu-Bet that AB didn't Suck,son
But Ken JI beat J-lo? Ho knows

Words are fun.  If Lopez does terrible next year, we should call him Gigli.

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Nov 7, 2007 2:35 PM PST   0 recs

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