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Willie Ballgame Community Projection Results

Based on these results, there are at least 109 people in the world who do not think very highly of Willie's offense.

AB: 209
H: 51
2B: 6
3B: 1
HR: 1
BB: 17
HBP: 3
K: 38
BA: .243 (.024)
OBP: .309 (.027)
SLG: .297 (.039)
IsoPa: .066 (.015)
IsoPo: .053 (.020)

(Note: "IsoPa" refers to "Isolated Patience", or OBP - BA, while "IsoPo" refers to "Isolated Power, or SLG - BA. For the rate stats, the propagated error is listed in parentheses. Thanks a million to reader Bryan McCulloch for helping out with the calculations.)

Graphical form of this projected embarrassment:

For those of you keeping track of this sort of thing, the above forecast actually calls for a regression. Pretty much the only thing Willie did half-decently at the plate last year was draw the occasional walk, and you guys don't think that'll keep up at the same rate (and why would it? Who throws balls to Willie on purpose?). The rest of the line is virtually identical to 2006's, right down to the solitary home run, which must be the result of some kind of hardy, pervasive optimism among the fan base despite Barry Zito's leaving the division for more liberal pastures.

Fun with (more) numbers: according to the spreadsheet, Willie is roughly one standard deviation below Ramon E Martinez. In other words, according to the community, there's about a 16% chance that our super awesome utility player actually resembles a competent utility player (nevermind a super awesome one). So, yeah, God help us if someone gets majorly hurt, because Plan B looks about as appealing as that bar graph.

Pitchers start tomorrow (Felix!), pending a brief introductory post whenever I get around to doing it.

0 recs | Comment 10 comments

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Oops
I, for one, thoroughly enjoy when a "batter's" OBP is greater than his slugging.

They don't call him Boom-Boom Dynamite for nuttin'.

"You guys should be in every major city. This is some heavy shit. This is, like, Lone Ranger heavy, man."

by AZSEAfan on Feb 27, 2007 2:29 PM PST   0 recs

I like it when the SLG is the same as the BA
Hot potato is an entirely different game when you're starving

by Mariner John on Feb 27, 2007 3:14 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Dang.
I should've left my "-1" in the HR column...
Iceberg, right ahead!

by PositivePaul on Feb 27, 2007 3:19 PM PST   0 recs

It's probably accurate...
When he Willy Bellyflops it in Center one day.
Detect-O-Vision

Favor the Bold

by IcebreakerX on Feb 27, 2007 3:28 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I think
that it should be called "Willyflops"

by Robert on Feb 27, 2007 3:46 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

His 1 homer will be of the ITP variety.
Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and fuck the prom queen.

by Goose on Feb 27, 2007 3:52 PM PST   0 recs

And we'll hear the
tale of the grittiest home run ever hit for years to come.

by oompagooba on Feb 27, 2007 4:37 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I had the same thought
But after reading Hargrove's rant about aggressive baserunning, I figured Willie would stop at third to avoid any risk of displeasing Hargrove.  Thus, I changed his home run to another triple.

by G_ on Feb 27, 2007 4:39 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I'm afraid you're missing a few categories.
You'll need to add the following categories, then solicit updated projections:

Hometown References Per Game(HtRPG)

Isolated Grit(IsoGr)

Different Nickname Per Post Average(DNPPA)

"Happy Hargroves"(HH - Ewwww...  Now I'm just going with the low brow humor)

Stolen Hearts[Casual Fans](SHcf)

Stolen Hearts[Real Fans](SHrf - You might as well just set the projection to this at zero)

How Much Better James Earl Jones' Monologue at the End of Field of Dreams Was In Comparison to WFB's Performance Average(HMBJEJMatEoFoDWICtWFBPA)

Dead Hookers(DH)

The throw to the plate will be... LATE! The Mariners are going to play for the American League Championship! I don't believe it, it just continues! My Oh My!

by AFRanger on Feb 28, 2007 10:00 PM PST   0 recs

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