Sexson Community Projection Results

by Jeff on Feb 8, 2007 8:32 PM PST in Regular News

144 of you have spoken.

AB: 546
H: 142
2B: 34
3B: 0
HR: 34
BB: 65
HBP: 4
K: 153
BA: .260 (0.016)
OBP: .343 (0.018)
SLG: .511 (0.035)
IsoPa: .083 (0.009)
IsoPo: .249 (0.023)

(Note: "IsoPa" refers to "Isolated Patience", or OBP - BA, while "IsoPo" refers to "Isolated Power, or SLG - BA. For the rate stats, the standard deviation is listed in parentheses.)

And the picture that's orange because I don't know why:

This is along the lines of what I think is going to happen - Sexson staves off decline by adding a few walks and extra-base hits, but doesn't return to being the terrific hitter he was in 2005. What I don't agree with, however, is that only 10% of contributors projected a sub-.800 OPS. It seems to me that Sexson has arguably the highest collapse potential on the team, and that isn't reflected in the spreadsheet. Nevertheless, the average comes out looking fine, even if the distribution seems awry. I don't know if these things are even cut out for PECOTA-esque probability levels anyway. What matters is that, in truth, Sexson's a lot more likely to regress than he is to improve.

Tomorrow morning we begin projecting the unprojectable Jose Lopez. Will the power come back? Will it stay the same? Will it get worse? Will it disappear completely as the only extra-base hit Jose gets all year is on a slow roller where the entire infield converges and the second baseman trips over the ball and falls into the pitcher who accidentally spikes him in the head and everyone calls for an ambulance while Jose sprints for third? Hell if I know. What am I, psychic? I just like playing with spreadsheets.

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I love charts

How in the name of Zeus's butthole did you get out of your cell?

by Scruffy Lefty on Feb 8, 2007 9:16 PM PST 0 recs

Sexson the Barbarian

I was at the top of the curve in pretty much every category for him. I know he's due to start sucking and all, but all I could think of was last August and September.

Hoooleee shit. He was like Bruce Lee merged with Conan the Barbarian at the plate. Average, power, patience, the only things he didn't do was steal bases. I know he always heats up for the last couple of months, but not like that. His first half was also abnormally bad.

"What is good in life, Richie?"
"To crush your enemies...to see them driven before you and to hear the lamentation of their women!"

by Mere Tantalisers on Feb 9, 2007 8:10 AM PST 0 recs

Collapse potential and his second half...

I really don't think it's a coincidence that every time one of our players starts working a lot with Jeff Pentland, they start hitting. Sexson was reported to have "completely reworked his swing" right around the time his slump ended, and he just got better and better after that. I see Richie's second half as being repeatable. He wasn't getting bloops to fall in, he was hitting ropes. Plus, this lineup is a lot deeper now, and Richie will be better protected.

I think he has his best year in Seattle so far.

by chaney on Feb 9, 2007 8:58 AM PST 0 recs

Hmm.

Sexson, First Half:

GB%: 39.6
FB%: 41.7
LD%: 18.8
BABIP: .252

Sexson, Second Half:

GB%: 40.3
FB%: 42.8
LD%: 16.9
BABIP: .365

Some skill. Mostly luck.

by Jeff on Feb 9, 2007 10:00 AM PST up 0 recs

Hmm

Jeff, I thought that the 'BABIP is random' mantra applied much more to pitchers than to batters. I'm looking through the Annual right now to try and find out where they say this...

by Graham on Feb 9, 2007 10:22 AM PST up 0 recs

It's correlated to LD%.

And Sexson's went down as his BABIP soared. That's not normal.

by Jeff on Feb 9, 2007 10:27 AM PST up 0 recs

Correlated to LD%

Batting average on line drives has a year-to-year correlation of 0.13, with average on outfield flies at 0.52 and grounders at 0.22.

Looking at THT's numbers, my intuition is 'not luck'. If the late season increased was brought about by singles, I'd be with you - the correlation per outfield fly (Sexson is the type of hitter who gets most of his production on fly balls) is 0.01 for singles/fly.

However, if you look at his splits, the number that shoots up after the May is power. I'll combine the two lines to give quick comparison.

Pre/Post/increase per PA

PA: 222/438/---
1B: 23/59/x1.3
2B: 12/28/x1.18
HR: 6/27/x2.28
SO: 64/89/x0.70
BB: 19/45/x1.2

Interesting, huh? Those numbers seem within random deviation except the home runs.

by Graham on Feb 9, 2007 10:58 AM PST up 0 recs

Re: Correlated to LD%

Sexson Until May 31st:

FB%: 36.5
GB%: 43.1
LD%: 20.4
BABIP: .269

Sexson After May 31st:

FB%: 41.4
GB%: 41.8
LD%: 16.8
BABIP: .319

Well that changes things from pre-/post-ASB numbers. June was one messed up month.

Richie Sexson got better as the year rolled along due to three things: (1) more walks, (2) fewer strikeouts, and (3) more power. These were all real changes, but they've been there throughout his entire career, so I don't think it's fair to assume that he can suddenly carry over his late-season success into next April. That just isn't who he is, or at least it isn't who he's been before.

I think he gets a little better in 2007 not because he keeps up the same torrid pace, but because his early struggles aren't as bad as they were last year. And that's about it.

by Jeff on Feb 9, 2007 12:14 PM PST up 0 recs

Oh

and the BABIP jumped despite a LD% drop, too, but that was just the statistic regressing closer to his career average.

Looking at this stuff before/after May is way different than looking at it pre-/post-ASB.

by Jeff on Feb 9, 2007 12:15 PM PST up 0 recs

Yeah, you know which side I fall on there

I was just wondering about your argument, not your comclusions :)

by Graham on Feb 9, 2007 1:21 PM PST up 0 recs

that doesn't tell the whole story

GB, FB, it all looks the same as text, but there was a big difference between a Sexson FB in the first and second halves of the season. For one thing, pre-AS, he had an 11% HR/FB rate. Post AS, it was 16-17. Luck? All the extra doubles, singles, all luck? No way.

Right around late july, he started hitting the ball right on the button. If he hit a ball on the ground, it was a screamer that careened off any divot in the field. If it was in the air, it went to the wall, or over it.

by Mere Tantalisers on Feb 9, 2007 11:04 AM PST up 0 recs

I think the stats agree with you

I'm not sure if it's sustainable though, which is what Jeff's more concerned about.

by Graham on Feb 9, 2007 11:13 AM PST up 0 recs

I'm not saying Sexson didn't get better.

I'm saying that a lot of the difference was due to good and bad luck. Obviously the ~40% improvement in HR/FB in the second half was skill-based, but a > 100-point jump in BABIP despite a decreased amount of line drives? That's fluky.

Richie Sexson, for his career, improves his OPS by 127 points in the second half. He is rather a clearly a warm-weather hitter. I think that's what we saw last year; a little bad luck early and some good luck late made it seem like more than that.

by Jeff on Feb 9, 2007 11:55 AM PST up 0 recs

OMG YOU GUYS ARE SUCH NERDS

Using stats to help your argument? Inane!

</angels fan>

Hot potato is an entirely different game when you're starving

by Mariner John on Feb 9, 2007 6:29 PM PST 0 recs

heh

I was just reading the Mariner Loathing diary and comments on their site. Cracks me up. Makes Jeff's writeup that much more enjoyable.

They actually do look pretty good this coming year, but best OF in baseball? Pfft. Vlad is who he is. But Anderson is going all Bernie Williams on em, and then there's GMJ. I don't see how that beats Boston, Mets, Yanks, Chicago (not Cubs, of course), and a number of NL teams I don't keep track of.

by Mere Tantalisers on Feb 9, 2007 6:56 PM PST up 0 recs

If Guillen is healthy and performs

I'd take our outfield over theirs.ESPECIALLY on defense. Vlad has decline significantly in that area over the last few years. They are gonna have to think about DHing him pretty soon.

Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and fuck the prom queen.

by Goose on Feb 9, 2007 6:58 PM PST up 0 recs